The verdict is in. Morrison's budget did little to tackle the deficit (remember that budget emergency the Liberals told us was the reason they had to be voted in so they could repair it immediately....?) but presents a promising platform for the Coalition's re-election, say the major newspapers - see SMH editorial and The Australian editorial. 

No surprising measures. All the big stuff was leaked well in advance (which really makes a mockery of the lock-up and 7.30pm budget time).

Good list of winners and losers here.

Good analysis from Philip Coorey who says Labor will target the "twin tax cuts" for the rich, comprising of the modest tax cut for those earning more than $80k and the ending of Joe Hockey's deficit levy. Here's a piece on what Labor will and won't support so-far.

2. The politics

Firstly, the era of vote-buying (epitomised by John Winston Howard from whom Treasurer Costello had to hide revenue to prevent even more cash-splashes) is well and truly over.

Our political class had no choice. The "reckless spending" did have to stop, even if nearly a decade after Kevin Rudd, the self-declared "fiscal conservative," made that declaration. For this politicians should be congratulated even if it they are forced into restraint by the fiscal realities and far too late.

Secondly, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison have borrowed from Labor in more than one way. I have been saying constantly here in Double Shot how skilled Labor has been at drawing the Coalition into duelling on its preferred political battleground.

As a result, the Liberals have taken on astronomical tobacco taxes ($40+ per pack by 2020), crackdowns on multinational companies avoiding their tax obligations and adopted some of Labor's own measures on curbing superannuation concessions for the rich.

But take note of Morrison's "Ten Year Enterprise Tax Plan" for a corporate tax cut. Usually budget cycles are talked about in reference to the "forward estimates," a wonky term for four years. For some time Labor has been unveiling policy ideas with costings estimated over the period of a decade. Now, with his ten-year company tax cut plan, Morrison too has borrowed this political tactic. There's clear benefits to this approach - ten years is enough time to deliver a huge impressive sounding number in forecasts. There's also enough time between today and then for all those figures and plans to go haywire without feeling an immediate electoral backlash. But it's also an admission that the budget deficit is so big it can't be tackled within four years anymore.

Former PM Tony Abbott after Treasurer Scott Morrison delivered the Budget speech on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

These similarities between the Coalition and Labor add up to my final point - this is no Tony Abbott budget. (Notice who is not clapping in the photo above?) Abbott has been fond of goading Turnbull of late that the two governments are virtually the same, making the leadership change pointless. No longer can he make this claim. Abbott derided two of the taxes (super and tobacco) which he will now be expected to vote for on the floor of parliament. 

3. August rate cut?

It was a political disaster for John Howard and Peter Costello when in 2007 the Reserve Bank decided to lift interest rates in the middle of the election campaign. Yesterday, the RBA cut rates after last week's shock low-inflation figures on the same day as the budget (which is normally the second Tuesday of May and not the first Tuesday when the RBA board meets).

Now analysts predict another rate cut could be on the way, although thankfully for the government not until August, after the July DD.

In the very unlikely scenario the RBA moved again in June, it would be a political football. Record low interest rates are a sign of a weak and under-performing economy and could draw voters minds to the Coalition's economic stewardship these past three years. On the other hand, a capable PM could argue that its just another reason for keeping the incumbents in power and not taking a risk with an untested opposition.

4. ANZ gives politicians bank-bashing ammunition

Photo: Carla Gottgens

That theory about what goes up must come down obviously doesn't apply to the banks when it comes to interest rates.

5. Trump-watch

Photo: Bloomberg

Keep an eye out for the result in the Indiana primary later today.  This is the day when we will pretty much know if Donald Trump secures the Republican nomination.

And on that crucial question, in the latest instalment of what Trump said next, he's just linked rival Ted Cruz to JFK's assassination.

6. Corbyn faces crucial elections

What could happen inside the UK Labour party this week is really worth paying attention to. This week there are local council elections (which are much politically patronised and a huge deal in Britain). It's also a key and the first nationwide test for embattled Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn whose leadership is now in crisis (before the scheduled time of after the June 23 referendum), because of his poor handling of anti-Semitic comments made by various Labour figures.

Breitbart quoted a senior Hamas official praising Corbyn.

In all the hallmarks of a leader under pressure, he's hitting out at the media - "the golden circle of the media establishment" - and declaring nothing to see here.

That's it for today, you can follow me on Facebook for more. 

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