ABC election guru Antony Green has called the seat of Brisbane as a win for the Liberal National Party, which is poised to defeat Labor in the inner-city electorate for the first time in 30 years.
Mr Green had held off calling the result until the outcome of further counting today, but said this afternoon he was confident the LNP's lead was unassailable.
The victory would give the Coalition 73 seats in the federal parliament (including independently minded WA National member Tony Crook), just ahead of Labor's 72.
With neither side winning enough seats to govern with an absolute majority, the parties have been forced to negotiate with four independents and a Greens MP for the right to rule.
LNP Brisbane candidate Teresa Gambaro yesterday powered ahead of Labor incumbent Arch Bevis, with postal votes and absentee votes pushing her lead to 743 last night.
The margin edged higher to 839 votes on the back of freshly counted absentee votes this afternoon, with votes from more than 81 per cent of the electoral roll having been counted.
Latest figures show Ms Gambaro has 50.58 per cent of the vote after preferences, while Mr Bevis is trailing with 49.42 per cent.
Speaking just before midday when just under 80 per cent of the roll had been counted, Mr Green said the ALP would have required nearly 53 per cent of the remaining votes to win the seat.
"I think the LNP will stay ahead," he told brisbanetimes.com.au this morning.
"I suspect the next batch [of counting] I'll be able to give it."
Ms Gambaro said last night she was not yet ready to claim victory as counting fluctuated from day to day and thousands of votes still had to be processed.
"I don't think you ever get confident at this stage of the count because only a few days ago it was going in the opposite direction," she said.
This morning, an Australian Electoral Commission spokeswoman said a further 1500 absentee votes and some pre-poll votes were being counted today.
She said party scrutineers also continued to check the results from each of the election day polling booths.
The spokeswoman said 6825 postal vote ballots and 5168 early vote ballots had been issued.
The cut-off date for the return of postal votes is early next month.
So far, 4031 postal votes and 4572 early votes have been counted.
"We know what's been issued," the spokeswoman said.
"Whether they get back by the third of September is another question."
About 1300 provisional votes were also lodged on Saturday by people who did not have proper identification on election day.
These voters must visit the Electoral Commission office by the end of today to validate their vote.
Brisbane is listed on the Electoral Commission website as a likely win by the LNP because the party has more than 50.5 per cent of the vote after preferences.
But an official declaration of the result is some time away.
"We do not declare anything until every vote has been counted and a full distribution of preferences has been completed," the spokeswoman said.
Mr Green said the final count was likely to include votes from between 92 and 95 per cent of people listed on the electoral roll.
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